In 2012, Mark Trusheim and his co-authors published an analysis in Personalized Medicine where they argued using a NPV framework that stratified drugs (drugs for patients with a specific biomarker, especially in oncology) face a very challenging financial outlook due to their smaller market potential. As a follow-up to that, I've attached a short case study I did that investigates the Minimum Viable Market Share for the scenarios in the Personalized Medicine paper under assumptions of earlier commercialization and shorter time to sales peak. It will be mostly of interest to healthcare finance professionals, and perhaps to undergraduates studying engineering economy. (It'd be a good homework problem, in fact.) The article ends on a "cliffhanger" (on my standards... healthcare finance is fascinating), since one of the six scenarios can't be made financially viable in my NPV setting. Thankfully, the work of my undergraduate research assistant Jillian Sloand last semester made important advances in addressing that, and I hope to be able to post our write-up online soon.